TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:25 AM EST
Polymarket
This prediction market asks for the winner of a single Chinese Basketball Association (CBA) game between the Qingdao Eagles and the Nanjing Monkey King, scheduled for October 25th. The market resolves to the team that wins the game, including any overtime periods, or splits 50-50 if the game is canceled without a reschedule.
In the upcoming CBA game, scheduled for October 25 at 7:35AM ET: If the Qingdao Eagles win, the market will resolve to "Qingdao Eagles". If the Nanjing Monkey King win, the market will resolve to "Nanjing Monkey King". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
In the upcoming CBA game, scheduled for October 25 at 7:35AM ET: If the Qingdao Eagles win, the market will resolve to "Qingdao Eagles". If the Nanjing Monkey King win, the market will resolve to "Nanjing Monkey King". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the mechanisms behind them. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk and profit margins, while prediction markets are driven by the collective beliefs of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This market reflects the wisdom of the crowd, potentially incorporating information not fully accounted for by sportsbooks. Consequently, discrepancies can arise, with prediction markets sometimes offering more accurate probabilities, especially as the event nears. Examining both sources provides a more comprehensive view.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Predict for the Qingdao Eagles vs. Nanjing Monkey King match can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structures, all influencing price discovery. Furthermore, differing levels of liquidity and trading volume on each venue can lead to price discrepancies. While both platforms aim to reflect the probability of the outcome, the specific composition of traders and their access to information can create variations. This is a normal occurrence in decentralized prediction markets, and observing these differences can be insightful.