TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 11:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines whether specific quarterbacks rank among the top performers in fantasy football points during a single week of play, using standardized scoring rules that account for various in-game actions such as passing, rushing, and receiving statistics.
Each market resolves to Yes if the named quarterback finishes within the top five highest in total full-PPR fantasy points for all quarterbacks in Week 7 of the 2026 Pro Football regular season. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper's default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for passing, rushing, and receiving yards, touchdowns, interceptions, and two-point conversions, along with contributions from kicking and defensive/special teams activities. Players who do not participate in the week are considered to have scored zero points. If multiple players tie for the fifth position, contracts for all tied players settle at a fractional value based on the number of tied participants (e.g., two tied players each receive $0.50). All markets share these uniform scoring, eligibility, and tie-resolution rules.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially early in the market, as prediction markets can incorporate information and analysis from a wider range of sources. However, as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi tend to converge with sportsbook lines, as both attempt to accurately forecast the outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a quarterback will be in the top 5. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people trade, the price fluctuates, providing a dynamic assessment of each quarterback's chances. The higher the price, the greater the perceived probability of success. This creates a fluid and responsive market where information is quickly incorporated into the pricing.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final fantasy football scores for Week 7 are verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on standard fantasy football scoring rules, identifying the top 5 quarterbacks based on their performance. The platform will then determine which contracts payout based on the verified results. Traders should monitor official fantasy football sources to stay informed about the event's progress and ensure a smooth resolution process.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Injury reports are a major catalyst, as the status of key quarterbacks significantly impacts their projected performance. Unexpected changes in team matchups or weather conditions can also shift expectations. Furthermore, news regarding player performance in previous games or changes in coaching strategies could affect trader sentiment. Any information that alters the perceived probability of a quarterback achieving a top 5 fantasy score has the potential to move this market, creating opportunities for informed traders.