TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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QB Fantasy Football Week 4 Top 5?
kalshi

QB Fantasy Football Week 4 Top 5?

Volume:
$57,588

C.J. Stroud

 - Kalshi

C.J. Stroud - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 11:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

C.J. Stroud

View
100%
19%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$43,191
N/A
N/A
$28,397
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Joe Burrow

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$926
N/A
N/A
$825
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Aaron Rodgers

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$527
N/A
N/A
$527
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Drake Maye

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$523
N/A
N/A
$523
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kirk Cousins

View
100%
87%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$135
N/A
N/A
$135
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Case Keenum

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,523
N/A
N/A
$2,523
Settled
No
kalshi

Brock Purdy

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,734
N/A
N/A
$1,543
Settled
No
kalshi

Tyler Shough

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,709
N/A
N/A
$1,379
Settled
No
kalshi

Lamar Jackson

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$710
N/A
N/A
$606
Settled
No
kalshi

Josh Allen

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$707
N/A
N/A
$519
Settled
No
kalshi

Bryce Young

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$479
N/A
N/A
$398
Settled
No
kalshi

Jared Goff

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$420
N/A
N/A
$409
Settled
No
kalshi

Jalon Daniels

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$389
N/A
N/A
$384
Settled
No
kalshi

Jameis Winston

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$330
N/A
N/A
$328
Settled
No
kalshi

Marcus Mariota

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$309
N/A
N/A
$309
Settled
No
kalshi

Matthew Stafford

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$286
N/A
N/A
$270
Settled
No
kalshi

Patrick Mahomes

View
0%
95%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$268
N/A
N/A
$268
Settled
No
kalshi

Bo Nix

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$267
N/A
N/A
$267
Settled
No
kalshi

Jalen Hurts

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$256
N/A
N/A
$256
Settled
No
kalshi

Dak Prescott

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$228
N/A
N/A
$228
Settled
No
kalshi

Jacoby Brissett

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$226
N/A
N/A
$226
Settled
No
kalshi

Athan Kaliakmanis

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$224
N/A
N/A
$224
Settled
No
kalshi

Trevor Lawrence

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$211
N/A
N/A
$210
Settled
No
kalshi

Michael Penix Jr.

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$144
N/A
N/A
$144
Settled
No
kalshi

Kyler Murray

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$108
N/A
N/A
$108
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 33

Description

This event determines whether specific quarterbacks rank among the top performers in fantasy football points during a designated week, using standardized scoring rules that reward passing, rushing, and receiving contributions along with special teams plays.

Kalshi

Each market assesses whether the named quarterback finishes within the top five in total full-PPR fantasy points for all quarterbacks in Week 4 of the 2026 Pro Football regular season. Points are calculated using Sleeper's default full-PPR scoring, which includes passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive/special teams contributions. Players who do not participate that week score zero. If multiple players tie for the fifth position, contracts settle proportionally based on the number of tied players (e.g., a two-way tie results in a 50% payout). All scoring details and tie-resolution mechanics apply uniformly across markets.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the NFL Week 4 QB market tracks the current prices for each potential top 5 quarterback, the 24-hour trading volume of $51,385, and the total volume traded to date of $57,588. You can also view a price history chart to see how the probabilities have shifted over time. This allows you to assess which quarterbacks are currently favored by traders and how sentiment is changing leading up to the games. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of expectations for quarterback performance in Week 4.

Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, particularly in the long run. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows traders to directly assess probabilities. However, initial sportsbook lines can sometimes influence early trading in this market. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant news or events impact perceptions of player performance. Comparing the two can offer valuable insights into public versus informed opinion.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether a given quarterback will be in the top 5. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. The market aggregates the collective intelligence of participants, resulting in a dynamic and real-time assessment of quarterback performance expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final NFL Week 4 quarterback rankings are verifiable from credible public reporting. The top 5 quarterbacks based on their fantasy football points scored during Week 4 will determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on widely accepted fantasy football scoring rules and sources, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi following the conclusion of the games.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports are crucial; news of a starting quarterback being ruled out would dramatically shift probabilities. Unexpected changes in team strategy or play-calling could also influence expectations. Furthermore, performance in the preceding Week 3 games, and any associated media coverage, will likely cause traders to reassess their positions. Weather forecasts for Week 4 games, particularly those impacting passing offenses, could also play a role. Any significant news regarding quarterback health or team dynamics will be closely watched by traders.