TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul
Volume:
$884,572
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers three interconnected prediction markets on the professional Liga MX soccer match between Pumas de la UNAM and CF Cruz Azul scheduled for March 14, 2026. Markets track the three mutually exclusive outcomes: Pumas win, Cruz Azul win, or draw. All markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation handling diverges between platforms. Kalshi resolves all outcomes to Yes; Polymarket differentiates by market type (Win markets No, Draw market Yes). This creates asymmetric payoff risk if the game is canceled entirely without a makeup date.Hero Tip:
Monitor cancellation risk as the primary divergence vector. For Kalshi positions, cancellation is favorable (Yes resolution). For Polymarket win market positions, cancellation is unfavorable (No resolution). For Polymarket draw market positions, cancellation is favorable (Yes resolution). Consider cross-platform hedging if cancellation probability rises.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: All three markets (Pumas win, Cruz Azul win, Tie) resolve to Yes for any outcome, including cancellation. The resolution logic treats all three outcomes as mutually exclusive Yes events with no explicit cancellation clause. Key Quote: 'If Tie wins the Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul professional Liga MX soccer game... then the market resolves to Yes. If Pumas UNAM wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Cruz Azul wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three separate markets with differentiated cancellation logic. Win markets (Pumas win, Cruz Azul win) resolve No if canceled with no makeup. Draw market resolves Yes if canceled with no makeup. Postponement keeps markets open until completion. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No' (win markets) vs 'this market will resolve Yes' (draw market).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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