TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 10:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Puebla and Monterrey, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Outcomes are based on specific goal-differential thresholds that define a winning condition for each team.
The event evaluates four distinct outcome conditions for the Puebla vs Monterrey professional Liga MX soccer match scheduled for October 21, 2026. All resolutions are based exclusively on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. A 'Yes' resolution occurs if Puebla wins by more than 2.5 goals, Puebla wins by more than 1.5 goals, Monterrey wins by more than 1.5 goals, or Monterrey wins by more than 2.5 goals. Each condition represents a progressively wider victory margin, allowing for multiple potential 'Yes' outcomes depending on the exact goal differential. The rules explicitly state that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the aggregate belief of informed traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. If a large number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome in the Puebla vs Monterrey match, the prediction market may move in the opposite direction. This can sometimes provide an edge for those looking to capitalize on perceived mispricings.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the potential result. The current price indicates what traders are collectively willing to pay for exposure to a particular outcome in the Puebla vs Monterrey match.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Puebla vs Monterrey match as officially reported by a reputable sports data provider. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout of 100 cents per contract, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will receive nothing. The market’s resolution is independent of any individual’s opinion and relies on objective data.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 22, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Puebla or Monterrey teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also cause movement. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal new information or a change in market perception, potentially leading to price fluctuations in this market.