TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 10:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Leon will win the Puebla vs Leon Liga MX soccer game after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Currently, Kalshi gives Leon a 64.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 25.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 9, 2026, as reported by the official game results. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the market will resolve following the completion of the game on the estimated resolution date of 2026-10-10.
If Puebla wins the Puebla vs Leon professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 9, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. If Leon wins the Puebla vs Leon professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 9, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie is the result of the Puebla vs Leon professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 9, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who have skin in the game. Discrepancies can arise from differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the teams' strengths. If you observe a significant difference between the implied probability on Kalshi and sportsbook odds, it may suggest an opportunity for value betting, depending on your own assessment of the Puebla vs Leon match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly posting bids and asks for contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective forecast. The current price indicates what it costs to buy a contract that pays out if the corresponding outcome occurs, and conversely, what you would receive for selling such a contract. This dynamic pricing mechanism makes Kalshi a unique source of forward-looking information.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Puebla vs Leon match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final contract price at resolution. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to stay informed of any potential factors that could influence the final result of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news regarding key player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected coaching decisions could all impact the perceived probabilities. Weather conditions on match day, or even significant shifts in public sentiment, could also play a role. Furthermore, any major upsets in related matches or leagues might influence how traders assess the relative strengths of Puebla and Leon, leading to price adjustments in this market. Monitoring these factors can help you understand potential shifts in the odds.