TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 5:22 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between PSG and Lyon, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates multiple potential outcomes of the PSG vs Lyon Ligue 1 soccer match scheduled for October 25, 2026, each defined by a specific goal differential threshold for either team to win by. All markets resolve based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from consideration. If PSG wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes. If PSG wins by more than 1.5 goals (but not more than 2.5), the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Lyon wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes, and if Lyon wins by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. Only one of these markets can resolve to Yes, as each represents a distinct range of victory margins. The governing body’s official result determines all resolutions, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league or ownership of associated trademarks and branding.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on models and public perception, while this market allows traders to express their own informed opinions. As more information becomes available – such as team news or injury reports – the prediction market odds can shift more rapidly than traditional sportsbooks, potentially offering a more accurate forecast. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a significant event like the PSG vs Lyon match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the contract price will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds are constantly updating based on supply and demand, creating a real-time assessment of the potential results of the PSG vs Lyon match.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the PSG vs Lyon match, specifically the goal difference. The final score will be verified against credible public sources to determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 27, 2026. Key player injuries or suspensions for either PSG or Lyon would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Unexpected changes in team form, such as a surprising loss in a previous match, could also influence trader sentiment. Major news regarding team tactics or managerial decisions might also move the market. Even public opinion, as reflected in sports news and analysis, can contribute to price fluctuations in this market for the PSG vs Lyon match.