TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.8b
24H VOL:
$153,964,051
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,815,744,871
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,809,858,743
498,684
Markets across
37,244
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,831
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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$100M
all
2 markets
Opinion
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2028
$100M
$
Intro
This market tracks the probability of the Probable governance token reaching a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $25M within one day of its public launch. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Opinion is 99.0% that the FDV will exceed this target. Resolution will be determined by the token price multiplied by total supply, measured at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the Probable token launch, using the most liquid price source available and confirmation from official Probable social channels. Keep an eye on the Probable token launch, currently estimated for January 1, 2028, to see if this outcome materializes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms apply identical FDV calculation methodology, timing (4:00 PM ET day after launch), and launch criteria (active public transferability). Threshold differences reflect market design choice, not resolution divergence.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available for Probable governance token; official Probable social channels (https://x.com/0xProbable) for launch confirmationCore resolution logic:
- FDV = total token supply multiplied by token price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
- Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to qualify as a launch event
- Resolution source is the most liquid price source available at the specified time
- Market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the stated threshold; No if FDV is at or below threshold
- If Probable does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves to No
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Multiple launch attempts: If Probable launches multiple tokens, resolution applies to the first publicly transferable and tradable token
- Illiquid or thin markets: Resolution uses most liquid price source available; if no reliable liquidity exists at 4:00 PM ET, resolution may be delayed pending market development or use of next-best available source
- Token supply changes: FDV calculation uses total token supply as of 4:00 PM ET on day after launch; any minting or burning events after launch do not retroactively adjust resolution
- Timezone edge case: 4:00 PM ET is fixed regardless of daylight saving time transitions; resolution time is always 4:00 PM in the Eastern Time zone on the specified calendar day
- Deadline expiration: If launch has not occurred by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all thresholds resolve to No regardless of any subsequent launch
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, 1 day after launch, the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the project's token (as specified in the market title) is greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is this CoinMarketCap 5-minute price chart with the chart set to the 24-hour (24h) range. If CoinMarketCap later modifies, backfills, or revises the historical data, this market will use the value of the data point as it was first reported by CoinMarketCap for that timestamp, ignoring any subsequent changes. If the project listed in the title does not launch a token (as defined above) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, represent the collective wisdom of traders regarding the probability of a future event. Unlike spot price expectations, which reflect current market value, these odds forecast a future outcome—in this case, the FDV of a new cryptocurrency. Discrepancies between prediction market prices and potential spot prices can arise from differing risk assessments, information advantages held by traders, and the inherent uncertainty surrounding new crypto launches. This market provides a forward-looking perspective not captured by current market prices.
Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Opinion may diverge due to several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk tolerances and information sets. Trading volume and liquidity also differ between the two venues, potentially leading to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the specific mechanisms for price discovery—how traders set the odds by buying and selling—can vary slightly between Polymarket and Opinion, contributing to differing valuations of the same underlying event. These factors create a fascinating dynamic where the market reflects a consensus view, but with nuances across platforms.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the FDV of the newly launched cryptocurrency one day after its launch, as reported by a widely recognized and trusted data source. The outcome will be determined by whether the FDV exceeds the threshold defined in the market question. Traders should monitor news and data sources leading up to Jan 1, 2028 to stay informed about potential catalysts.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Positive or negative news regarding the cryptocurrency's development team, partnerships, or technology could shift trader sentiment. The overall market conditions for cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin's price and broader investor risk appetite, will also play a role. Significant pre-launch marketing efforts or community engagement could boost expectations, while regulatory concerns or security vulnerabilities could dampen them. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential price movements in this market before Jan 1, 2028.
