TOTAL VOLUME:

$117.2b

24H VOL:

$91,762,156

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,181,583,547

342,259

Markets across

34,566

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,572

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

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58%

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Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Crypto
polymarket
opinion

Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Total volume:
$495,558
Volume 24h:
$34N/A
Liquidity:
$139,723
8%
Open interest:
$20,091N/A

$25M

 - Opinion

$25M - Opinion

99.9%

+0%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

No volume data

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 27

Aug 28

Vol.

$0.0

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

$25M

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 99.9¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.1% | APY: 0.07% 490 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 14

Intro

This market tracks whether Probable's governance token will surpass a $25M fully diluted valuation on the day after its public launch. The aggregated consensus across Polymarket and Opinion shows a 99.0% probability for the $25M outcome. Resolution will be based on the most liquid price source and confirmed via Probable's official social channels. Watch for the token launch, as the outcome will be determined at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms apply identical FDV calculation methodology, timing (4:00 PM ET day after launch), and launch criteria (active public transferability). Threshold differences reflect market design choice, not resolution divergence.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available for Probable governance token; official Probable social channels (https://x.com/0xProbable) for launch confirmation

Core resolution logic:

  • FDV = total token supply multiplied by token price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
  • Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to qualify as a launch event
  • Resolution source is the most liquid price source available at the specified time
  • Market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the stated threshold; No if FDV is at or below threshold
  • If Probable does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves to No

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Multiple launch attempts: If Probable launches multiple tokens, resolution applies to the first publicly transferable and tradable token
  • Illiquid or thin markets: Resolution uses most liquid price source available; if no reliable liquidity exists at 4:00 PM ET, resolution may be delayed pending market development or use of next-best available source
  • Token supply changes: FDV calculation uses total token supply as of 4:00 PM ET on day after launch; any minting or burning events after launch do not retroactively adjust resolution
  • Timezone edge case: 4:00 PM ET is fixed regardless of daylight saving time transitions; resolution time is always 4:00 PM in the Eastern Time zone on the specified calendar day
  • Deadline expiration: If launch has not occurred by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all thresholds resolve to No regardless of any subsequent launch
Timing: 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following Probable governance token launch (or No resolution if no launch by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET)Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, 1 day after launch, the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the project's token (as specified in the market title) is greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is this CoinMarketCap 5-minute price chart with the chart set to the 24-hour (24h) range. If CoinMarketCap later modifies, backfills, or revises the historical data, this market will use the value of the data point as it was first reported by CoinMarketCap for that timestamp, ignoring any subsequent changes. If the project listed in the title does not launch a token (as defined above) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

Frequently asked questions

The token launch FDV prediction market aggregates trader forecasts across Polymarket and Opinion on whether a token's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold one day after its public launch. Traders collectively deploy volume of $494,078 across these platforms to signal conviction about post-launch valuations. This cross-platform view reveals consensus expectations around early token economics and market sentiment, helping participants gauge whether initial demand will push valuations above key price levels within the critical first 24 hours.

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader beliefs about future FDV rather than current spot prices. While spot markets price tokens in real time based on immediate supply and demand, this market captures forward-looking conviction about where valuations will settle one day post-launch. Odds here tend to incorporate longer-term sentiment, team credibility, tokenomics structure, and broader market conditions—factors that may diverge significantly from opening-day volatility. Comparing these odds to actual launch-day performance reveals how well early prediction markets calibrate relative to actual price discovery.

Polymarket and Opinion attract different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create pricing gaps on identical outcomes. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in user base sophistication, platform UI design, and promotional activity also influence where each community's marginal trader sits. Additionally, timing lags in cross-platform arbitrage and varying levels of market depth mean one platform may react faster to new information about the token's fundamentals or broader crypto sentiment, causing temporary divergence before consensus realigns.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the token's FDV one day after launch is verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution hinges on whether the measured valuation exceeds the specified threshold at that checkpoint. Traders should monitor official announcements, blockchain data, and reputable market data providers in the 24-hour window following launch to track whether the threshold is crossed, as this determines which outcome holders receive their payouts.

Major catalysts include announcements of token allocations, vesting schedules, and exchange listings, all of which shape perceived FDV at launch. Shifts in broader crypto market sentiment, regulatory news, and comparable token launches can also reprrice expectations significantly. Team credibility updates, partnerships, or product milestones released before launch may increase or decrease conviction. Macro conditions—Bitcoin volatility, altseason momentum, or liquidity conditions—influence how aggressively traders bid for upside outcomes. Finally, pre-launch trading or private market signals can move odds as new information about demand emerges.