TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Pro Football: Team Wins in First 4 Weeks
kalshi

Pro Football: Team Wins in First 4 Weeks

Volume:
$91,350

Minnesota: 4 wins in first 4 weeks

 - Kalshi

Minnesota: 4 wins in first 4 weeks - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 6, 2026

Closed: Oct 4, 9:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Minnesota: 4 wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,935
N/A
N/A
$3,181
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Dallas: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
48%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,837
N/A
N/A
$3,410
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New England: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
67%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,988
N/A
N/A
$2,464
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Green Bay: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,935
N/A
N/A
$2,735
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jacksonville: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,927
N/A
N/A
$2,876
Settled
Yes
kalshi

San Francisco: 4 wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
36%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,653
N/A
N/A
$2,173
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Carolina: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,573
N/A
N/A
$2,545
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Arizona: 1+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,521
N/A
N/A
$1,485
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Baltimore: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,442
N/A
N/A
$2,442
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cincinnati: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,355
N/A
N/A
$375
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kansas City: 4 wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,233
N/A
N/A
$2,118
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kansas City: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,095
N/A
N/A
$2,095
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Seattle: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,586
N/A
N/A
$1,489
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Baltimore: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,483
N/A
N/A
$1,414
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Chicago: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,436
N/A
N/A
$1,435
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York G: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,435
N/A
N/A
$1,103
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Denver: 1+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,426
N/A
N/A
$1,379
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Pittsburgh: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,403
N/A
N/A
$1,403
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York G: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,389
N/A
N/A
$1,369
Settled
Yes
kalshi

San Francisco: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,374
N/A
N/A
$1,374
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Minnesota: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,363
N/A
N/A
$1,356
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cleveland: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,343
N/A
N/A
$1,169
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Las Vegas: 3+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,194
N/A
N/A
$965
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cleveland: 2+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
38%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,189
N/A
N/A
$1,037
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York J: 1+ wins in first 4 weeks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,059
N/A
N/A
$1,059
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 128

Description

This set of markets tracks the performance of individual professional football teams during the first four weeks of the season. Each market is focused on whether a specific team achieves a certain number of wins within this initial period, allowing participants to speculate on early-season success.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based solely on the number of games won by the specified team in the first four weeks of the Pro Football season. A win is defined as a victory in any game scheduled to be played during weeks 1 through 4, inclusive. No ties, forfeits, or other special conditions are considered—only the raw win count matters. Markets are resolved exclusively against regular-season results; postseason performance, rescheduling, or later-season outcomes have no impact. All determinations are final once the fourth week concludes, with no exceptions for weather cancellations or makeup games played beyond week 4. The governing league's official records are the sole source of truth for win tallies.

Frequently asked questions

Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on power rankings and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and real-time adjustments based on trader sentiment. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional polls or analysts’ predictions, as they incentivize participants to express their true beliefs. While sportsbooks may adjust lines based on betting action, this market continuously updates as new information emerges and traders refine their assessments of team performance.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a team will achieve a certain win total during the first four weeks of the NFL season. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of each team's prospects. The market depth shows the available buy and sell orders at different price points, indicating the strength of conviction among traders.

This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final win-loss records for each NFL team after the first four weeks of the season will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official NFL results and standings, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will be able to see the final results and payouts on Kalshi once the resolution process is complete.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected injuries to key players, particularly quarterbacks, would likely cause shifts in team win probabilities. Significant upsets in early games, where a perceived weaker team defeats a strong contender, could also trigger price movements. Changes in coaching strategies or team dynamics, as reported by credible sports news sources, could also influence trader sentiment. Finally, any news regarding team health, such as outbreaks of illness, could also move this market as traders adjust their expectations for the first four weeks of the NFL season.