TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 3:45 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve in favor of the player that finishes Week 4 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage touchdowns (rushing touchdowns plus receiving touchdowns). Only games designated by the NFL as Week 4 of the 2026-27 regular season count. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player with more scrimmage yards (rushing yards plus receiving yards) in Week 4 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher yards per touch average (scrimmage yards divided by the sum of rushing attempts and receptions) in Week 4 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to "Other". If Week 4 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened or truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available NFL statistics for completed games. If Week 4 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed past October 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player led the NFL in scrimmage touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve in favor of the player that finishes Week 4 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage touchdowns (rushing touchdowns plus receiving touchdowns). Only games designated by the NFL as Week 4 of the 2026-27 regular season count. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player with more scrimmage yards (rushing yards plus receiving yards) in Week 4 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher yards per touch average (scrimmage yards divided by the sum of rushing attempts and receptions) in Week 4 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to "Other". If Week 4 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened or truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available NFL statistics for completed games. If Week 4 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed past October 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player led the NFL in scrimmage touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective that differs from traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own modeling and risk assessment, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from sportsbook expectations. It’s common to see this market incorporate information not yet fully priced into sportsbook odds, such as subtle player news or changes in team dynamics. Comparing the two can offer a broader view of potential outcomes.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in a particular player winning the scrimmage touchdowns race. As more shares are purchased for a specific player, the price of those shares increases, reflecting a higher implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand, with traders constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis. This creates a dynamic and responsive market that aims to accurately forecast the eventual leader.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final statistics for the 2026-27 NFL season are verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the most scrimmage touchdowns (receiving, rushing, and passing) at the end of Week 4 will be declared the winner. The official NFL statistics will serve as the definitive source for determining the leader, and the market will settle based on those results. Any ties will be handled according to Polymarket’s standard tie-breaking procedures.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Player injuries are always a major catalyst, as the absence of a key contender would shift probabilities. Unexpected changes in offensive schemes or team personnel could also influence the market. Strong or weak performances in early-season games will provide valuable data points, causing traders to reassess their predictions. News regarding player health, coaching decisions, and even weather conditions could all contribute to price movements in this market as the season progresses.