Will any pitcher throw a fastball at 107+ MPH in 2026 MLB?

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of the event occurring. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing a 0% to 100% probability. As more traders believe a 107+ MPH pitch is likely, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, visible on the dashboard, shows the volume of contracts available at different price points, indicating the strength of conviction among traders.

This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether any pitcher in a professional baseball game officially records a pitch speed of 107 miles per hour or greater, as verified by official game data. The outcome will be determined based on publicly available and independently verifiable data sources, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process for this market.

Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding pitcher velocity, such as reports of a pitcher consistently throwing in the high 100s during spring training or early-season games, could drive up the price. Injuries to key pitchers known for their velocity could have the opposite effect. Unexpected rule changes affecting pitching mechanics or equipment could also play a role. Even weather conditions, potentially impacting pitcher performance, might cause fluctuations in trading volume and price as the resolution date approaches.