TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 5:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Portugalete and Irun, focusing solely on the result after the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It specifically identifies whether Portugalete, Irun, or neither (a tie) wins during regulation time, excluding any potential extra time or penalty shootouts. The resolution depends strictly on the match's official result as defined by the governing league.
The event determines the winner of a professional Copa del Rey soccer match between Portugalete and Irun, scheduled for October 28, 2026, based exclusively on the result after 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, without considering extra time or penalty kicks. Three distinct outcomes are possible: Portugalete wins, Irun wins, or the match ends in a tie. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price. The markets are explicitly unaffiliated with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of forecasters, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or public perception. Sportsbooks typically set initial lines to balance betting action, whereas this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the probability of each outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the two can offer valuable insights into differing perspectives on the likely result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and spread can indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions, and the volume traded provides a measure of interest in the event.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Portugalete vs Irun match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the regulation time moneyline – meaning the winner of the match excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. The platform will utilize publicly available data to determine the winning team and settle all outstanding contracts accordingly.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or tactical changes could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, major upsets in related matches or changes in public sentiment could lead to adjustments in the odds. Monitoring these signals and events will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the market before Oct 28, 2026.