TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the total number of goals scored in an upcoming UEFA Nations League soccer match between Portugal and Norway. The outcome depends on whether the combined goals exceed specific thresholds. It reflects the competitive nature of international soccer and the strategies teams employ to either score or defend effectively.
The event evaluates multiple markets based on the total goals scored in the Portugal vs Norway UEFA Nations League match scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of goals (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, and 5.5), resolving to 'Yes' if the actual number of goals exceeds the respective threshold after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootout goals are excluded from all resolutions. All markets operate independently, meaning each threshold is assessed separately, and the outcome of one does not influence the others. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by professional oddsmakers, while this market’s prices are determined by the collective predictions of individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when public opinion shifts, as the market dynamically adjusts to new information. Comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive view of the expected outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different total goal outcomes for the Portugal vs Norway match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust, providing a real-time assessment of the expected total goals. This dynamic pricing allows for a fluid and responsive market.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total number of goals scored in the Portugal vs Norway match will be the determining factor. This includes any goals scored during regulation time and any added time, but excludes penalty shootouts. The final result will be sourced from official match data and widely available sports news outlets to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several signals could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for key players on either Portugal or Norway would likely cause movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather forecasts predicting conditions that favor a higher or lower scoring game could all impact trading activity. Unexpected news regarding team morale or internal conflicts could also shift the market’s perception of the likely outcome.