TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:45 PM EST
Predict
This prediction market asks for the winner of the second half of a UEFA Nations League match between Portugal and Norway. Resolution depends on which team scores more goals during the second half of regular play, including stoppage time, or if the result is a draw.
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Portugal and Norway, scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Portugal" if Portugal score more goals than Norway in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Portugal and Norway score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Norway" if Norway score more goals than Portugal in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Portugal and Norway, scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Portugal" if Portugal score more goals than Norway in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Portugal and Norway score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Norway" if Norway score more goals than Portugal in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often reflect a different kind of wisdom than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while prediction markets are driven by individuals wagering their own capital based on their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when public sentiment strongly diverges from expert opinion. While sportsbooks may initially favor one team, this market could shift based on informed traders identifying perceived mispricings. The volume of $169 also plays a role, as higher volume typically indicates greater confidence and accuracy.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. The differing prices on Polymarket and Predict for the Portugal vs. Norway second half can stem from several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information. Polymarket might have a higher concentration of soccer enthusiasts, while Predict could draw more general prediction market participants. Furthermore, the liquidity – or volume – differs between the two, with Polymarket showing a volume of $169 and Predict having $169 in 24-hour volume. These variations in user composition and trading activity contribute to price discrepancies.