TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 9:52 AM EST
Kalshi
This prediction group asks forecasters to predict the exact final score of a League One soccer match between Plymouth Argyle FC and AFC Wimbledon. The markets consider only regulation time (90 minutes plus stoppage time) and exclude extra time or penalty shootouts.
In the upcoming League One game between Plymouth Argyle FC and AFC Wimbledon, scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Plymouth Argyle FC vs. AFC Wimbledon match originally scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Plymouth or Wimbledon wins the match. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: Plymouth winning by more than 2.5 goals, Plymouth winning by more than 1.5 goals, Wimbledon winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Wimbledon winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these conditions are met—meaning the winning team secures a victory with the specified goal margin—the market resolves positively (Yes). The resolution occurs after the full 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. All outcomes are evaluated independently, and the market resolves to Yes if any primary rule condition is satisfied. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the underlying mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, incorporating a margin for themselves, while prediction markets are driven by supply and demand. This market’s price reflects what traders are willing to pay based on their own research and beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches. The volume of $2,279 suggests significant interest in this particular contest, and the collective wisdom of the crowd may offer a different perspective than traditional betting outlets.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge for several reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and information. Trading fees, platform-specific rules, and liquidity can also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the leading outcomes currently differ: Polymarket currently favors Exact Score: Plymouth Argyle FC 5 - 5 AFC Wimbledon? at 75, while Kalshi leans toward Plymouth wins by more than 2.5 goals? at n/a. These factors create independent price discovery processes, resulting in potentially different odds for the same event, even with a combined volume of $2,279.