TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
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2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a professional football game between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, focusing specifically on the margin of victory. It categorizes possible winning scenarios based on how many points separate the two teams at the end of the match, including ties. The resolution depends entirely on the final score, regardless of game dynamics or performances.
The event determines the winning margin in the Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay Pro Football game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Outcomes are resolved based on the point differential between the two teams after the full game, including any overtime periods. If Tampa Bay wins by exactly 0 points (a tie), the market resolves to Yes for the 'Tie' outcome. If Tampa Bay wins by between 1 to 6 points, the market resolves to Yes for the 'Tampa Bay by 1 to 6' outcome. If Tampa Bay wins by between 7 to 14 points, the market resolves to Yes for the 'Tampa Bay by 7 to 14' outcome. If Tampa Bay wins by 15 or more points, the market resolves to Yes for the 'Tampa Bay by 15 or more' outcome. Conversely, if Pittsburgh wins by between 1 to 6 points, the market resolves to Yes for the 'Pittsburgh by 1 to 6' outcome. If Pittsburgh wins by between 7 to 14 points, the market resolves to Yes for the 'Pittsburgh by 7 to 14' outcome. Finally, if Pittsburgh wins by 15 or more points, the market resolves to Yes for the 'Pittsburgh by 15 or more' outcome. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the most likely winning margin. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of trading activity. If you find a significant difference between the implied probability on Kalshi and sportsbook odds, it may indicate an opportunity for informed traders to capitalize on market inefficiencies.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing specific winning margins. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that margin occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price discovery process is entirely driven by supply and demand, with no central authority setting the odds; instead, traders directly influence the price through their trading decisions.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final winning margin of the Pittsburgh versus Tampa Bay game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the league, and contracts will pay out based on whether the actual winning margin falls within the range specified by each contract. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct winning margin will receive a payout, while those with contracts on incorrect margins will not.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather forecasts could shift expectations about the game's outcome and the likely winning margin. Unexpected announcements about player availability, or even significant shifts in public sentiment as reflected in polls or analyst predictions, could also lead to substantial price movements. Monitoring these signals closely will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on opportunities before Oct 18, 2026.