TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. Participants can bet on whether the players will exceed certain yardage thresholds, with payouts scaling based on actual performance. The structure allows for dynamic returns tied directly to in-game statistics.
Both markets operate as scalar contracts where Yes payouts are determined by a fixed rate per rushing yard achieved by the respective player—Bucky Irving or Jaylen Warren—during the specified game. Each Yes contract earns $0.0025 for every rushing yard recorded, capped at $1.00, which corresponds to a maximum of 400 yards. The No contract pays the remainder of $1.00 minus the Yes payout, ensuring the total payout per contract equals $1.00 regardless of outcome. Payouts are proportional to the holder’s position size, meaning larger positions receive correspondingly larger absolute payouts while maintaining the same percentage distribution. For instance, 80 yards would allocate 20% of the contract value to Yes and 80% to No, while zero yards would allocate 0% to Yes and 100% to No. These rules apply independently to each player’s market but share the same structural framework.
Generally, prediction markets like this one often reflect information and insights different from those priced into traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. You may find that the implied probabilities from Kalshi diverge from those offered by sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges. This difference can stem from differing opinions on player injuries, weather conditions, or strategic adjustments expected during the game. It’s useful to compare both to form a well-rounded view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yardage levels. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market can quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly, offering a unique perspective on the potential game outcome. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yardage statistics from the Pittsburgh versus Tampa Bay game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final market price will reflect the actual total rushing yards achieved during the game. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be eligible for payout based on their positions in the market. It’s important to monitor the game and official statistics as they become available to understand the resolution process.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key injuries to running backs or offensive linemen on either the Pittsburgh or Tampa Bay teams would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they indicate rain or snow, could also impact the expected rushing totals. Unexpected coaching announcements or shifts in offensive strategy could also play a role. Finally, late-breaking news about player availability or performance expectations could lead to substantial shifts in trading activity and the overall price of this market.