TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential performance of specific players in an upcoming football game by tying payouts to the number of rushing yards they achieve. Participants can speculate on whether the players will meet certain yardage thresholds, with payouts increasing as the yardage increases. The structure rewards accurate predictions of player performance in a dynamic and engaging way.
Contracts in this event pay out based on the rushing yards accumulated by designated players in a specific football game. For each player market, Yes contracts pay an increasing amount tied to every 10-yard increment in rushing yards, following a cubic scaling formula that caps at $1.00 for 200 or more yards. The payout schedule begins at $0.0000 for 0–9 yards and rises progressively, with the exact payout determined by applying the formula floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000, where y is derived from the official rushing yards total. No contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout. If a player records negative rushing yards, Yes contracts pay $0.00. The maximum payout for Yes contracts is strictly limited to $1.00, ensuring that all outcomes are resolved within the defined financial boundaries. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price in this market will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can be a valuable exercise for informed betting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a higher rushing yard total, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants. The market depth and trading volume provide insight into the level of conviction behind different predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard totals for the Pittsburgh versus Tampa Bay game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yard total, as reported by the official NFL statistics, will determine which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders who correctly predicted the final rushing yard total, or held contracts on the correct side of the outcome, will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution. The market will then be closed and settled.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, as would changes in weather forecasts predicting rain or snow, which could impact the running game. News regarding offensive line changes or defensive strategies could also shift the market. Even late-breaking news about player matchups or coaching decisions could lead to price movements. Unexpected news regarding the health of the quarterbacks could also affect the game script and, consequently, the rushing yard totals.