TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 5:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions achieved by various players in a specific football game, offering multiple thresholds for different athletes. The outcome depends solely on whether each player meets or exceeds their designated reception count during the full match, including any overtime periods.
All markets in this event are designated as protected, meaning they follow specific participation and settlement rules. A contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff if the player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half concludes, unless the player already meets the reception threshold. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Penalties that nullify a play do not count toward participation or reception totals. A player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with an above-or-at-least payout criterion, and all reception counts include overtime periods.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the probability of different outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Polls and analysts’ predictions can also vary, showcasing a range of perspectives on the likely number of receptions in this contest.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different reception totals. The price of a contract indicates the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event’s likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and spread can vary depending on trading activity and the time remaining until the event. Traders are actively setting the price based on their own analysis and expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official NFL statistics for the Pittsburgh versus Tampa Bay game will be used to determine the total number of receptions made by all players. The market will settle based on these verified statistics, representing the final, official outcome of the game. The resolution process ensures an objective and transparent determination of the result.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Pittsburgh or Tampa Bay teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact passing game strategies and reception totals. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in offensive play-calling could further affect market prices. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could also drive trading activity in this market.