TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions recorded by specific players in an upcoming NFL game between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. Participants can bet on whether each player will achieve a certain level of reception activity, with payouts scaling based on actual performance. The structure allows for nuanced predictions about individual player contributions in the game.
This event comprises four separate scalar markets focused on the number of receptions recorded by individual players—Emeka Egbuka, Bucky Irving, DK Metcalf, and Jaylen Warren—during the Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay NFL game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each market operates independently, with Yes contracts paying $0.05 per reception recorded by the respective player, up to a maximum payout of $1.00, which corresponds to a cap of 20 receptions. The No contracts pay the remainder of the $1.00 contract value after subtracting the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, meaning that if a player records, for example, eight receptions, the Yes payout would be $0.40 and the No payout $0.60 for that market. If a player records zero receptions, the Yes payout is $0.00 and the No payout is $1.00. All markets resolve based solely on the official game statistics, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the NFL.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by house biases or initial public perception. While sportsbooks set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. Discrepancies can emerge due to differing information access or varying interpretations of the same data. It’s common to observe that this market adjusts more rapidly to new information, like injury reports or coaching changes, than traditional sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain player will exceed a reception total, the price of those contracts increases. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds are constantly evolving based on collective intelligence and new information, offering a unique perspective on player performance expectations for the upcoming game.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official statistics for the Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for each player will be used to determine which contracts settle in the money. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted whether players would surpass the specified reception thresholds. This process ensures a transparent and objective resolution based on official game data.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either team would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence expectations for passing volume and reception totals. Unexpected coaching decisions regarding offensive play-calling strategies, or late-breaking reports about player matchups, could also drive movement in this market as traders adjust their predictions.