TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks receiving yard performance for specific players in an upcoming NFL matchup. Participants can bet on whether each player will achieve a certain level of receiving yards, with payouts scaling based on actual yardage accumulated during the game.
Each market operates as a scalar betting contract where Yes payouts are determined by a fixed rate of $0.0025 per receiving yard accumulated by the specified player, capped at $1.00. The No payout is calculated as the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout, ensuring that total payouts for both outcomes always sum to $1.00. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, meaning larger positions receive correspondingly larger absolute payouts while maintaining the same ratio. For instance, if a player records 80 receiving yards, the Yes payout would be $0.20 and the No payout $0.80; at 200 yards, both payouts equal $0.50. If the player records zero yards, the Yes payout is $0.00 and the No payout is $1.00. All markets share identical payout structures and constraints, differing only in the specific player whose performance they track.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly before significant news or events impact perceptions of player performance and potential receiving yardage.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage thresholds for players in the game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that threshold being reached. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will fluctuate, providing a real-time view of expectations. The market depth shows the volume of contracts available at different price points, indicating the strength of buy and sell interest.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics from the Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards for each player will be sourced from official NFL data and used to determine which contracts settle at a value of 100. Any discrepancies will be addressed based on the official game statistics as reported by the NFL. The resolution process ensures a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement in this market. Injury reports for key players on either team are significant catalysts, as they directly impact potential receiving yardage. Weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to be unfavorable for passing, could also shift expectations. Late-breaking news regarding player matchups or coaching strategies could also move the market. Finally, any significant shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in media coverage or social media, could influence trading activity and alter the prices in this market.