TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks specific passing yard thresholds for two quarterbacks in an upcoming football game. The outcome depends on whether either player meets or exceeds their designated yardage mark during the full match, including any overtime periods. The contracts include special 'protected' conditions related to player participation timing.
These contracts resolve based on whether specified quarterbacks achieve particular passing yard thresholds during the full game, including overtime. Each contract is designated as 'protected,' meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the player meets the yardage requirement, in which case it settles based on actual performance. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract always settles based on actual statistics, irrespective of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with 'at least' payout criteria. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, making it a responsive indicator of expectations regarding passing yardage totals.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yardage totals for the game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final outcome. It's important to monitor official sources for the most accurate and up-to-date information as the game progresses and the final statistics are tallied.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that might favor a passing or running game, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected lineup changes or strategic adjustments announced by the coaching staffs could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis from reputable sports analysts could sway trader sentiment and alter the probabilities reflected in the prices.