TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in a specific football game, focusing on whether certain athletes or units surpass predetermined fantasy point thresholds using a standardized scoring system.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by specified players or team defense units during the full game (including overtime) between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, originally scheduled for October 18, 2026. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive/special teams contributions as detailed in the scoring format. Players who do not participate or are not assigned a fantasy-point value by Sleeper are considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at the time of game expiration are used for resolution, with no post-expiration adjustments or rounding applied. Each market individually checks if the named player or defense unit exceeds their specific fantasy point threshold to determine a 'Yes' or 'No' outcome.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. While sportsbooks set lines to balance action, this market allows traders to express their own independent assessments of likely outcomes. Discrepancies can arise from differing information sources, analytical approaches, or simply variations in opinion. It's common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available leading up to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and order flow provide insights into the level of conviction behind different predictions, and the current prices indicate what traders believe is a fair assessment of the likelihood of various fantasy point totals.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official fantasy point totals from the NFL game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy points scored by the players in the Pittsburgh versus Tampa Bay game will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on established fantasy scoring rules, and the market will settle to 100 for the outcome that corresponds to the actual total fantasy points achieved.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or weather forecasts could shift expectations and impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about player availability, even late in the week, can cause significant price movements. Furthermore, updates on player matchups or offensive/defensive schemes could also lead to adjustments in the market's assessment of likely fantasy point totals. General shifts in public sentiment or expert analysis can also contribute to changes in the market.