TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 3:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Pittsburgh or Tampa Bay exclusively within the second quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that quarter alone.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay during the second quarter of their Pro Football game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold that the winning team must exceed for the outcome to resolve as 'Yes'. Points scored in any other quarter are irrelevant to these markets. If Pittsburgh wins the second quarter by more than the specified margin, the corresponding Pittsburgh markets resolve to 'Yes' and all Tampa Bay markets resolve to 'No'. Conversely, if Tampa Bay wins the second quarter by more than the specified margin, the corresponding Tampa Bay markets resolve to 'Yes' and all Pittsburgh markets resolve to 'No'. If neither team meets their respective threshold, all markets resolve to 'No'.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a margin for profit, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Comparing this market to sportsbook odds can provide a broader perspective on the potential outcome of the game and highlight areas where the crowd disagrees with experts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 2nd quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume influence how quickly the price reacts to new information or changes in sentiment. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 2nd quarter spread between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics released by the NFL. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The final price of contracts will reflect the actual result of the game.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Pittsburgh or Tampa Bay would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions affecting the passing or running game, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected news about coaching strategies or team morale might also play a role. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could indicate shifts in sentiment and drive price fluctuations in this market.