TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 1:50 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting which Tampa Bay player or unit will score the team's first touchdown in an upcoming football game against Pittsburgh. Each market corresponds to a specific player or the defensive unit, with outcomes determined by game events.
The markets determine whether a specified Tampa Bay player or the team's defense scores the first touchdown in the game against Pittsburgh. Each player-specific market resolves to Yes if that particular player scores the first Tampa Bay touchdown. If the player is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair pre-game price. Once a player takes a snap, the market resolves based on whether they score the first touchdown. If no Tampa Bay touchdowns are scored, all player markets resolve to No, and the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes. The defensive unit market follows the same logic, resolving to Yes if the defense scores the first touchdown. All markets are independent, and the outcome is strictly based on the first touchdown scored by Tampa Bay, with no consideration for subsequent scoring events.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. Each contract represents a 1% chance of the event occurring. As more people buy contracts predicting the first Tampa Bay touchdown, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand, meaning that if there's strong conviction that the touchdown will happen early, the price will rise, and vice-versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information efficiently.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on determining which team scores the first touchdown in the game between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. The outcome will be based on official game statistics and play-by-play data. The market will settle to 100 if Tampa Bay scores the first touchdown, and 0 if Pittsburgh scores first. The resolution process is designed to be objective and based on publicly available information.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either team, particularly the Tampa Bay offensive players, would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also affect the likelihood of a quick touchdown. Furthermore, any shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or social media trends, could lead to increased trading volume and price fluctuations. Unexpected developments during the game itself, even before the first touchdown, could also move the market.