TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 2:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the first quarter of an upcoming professional football game between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. Each market evaluates different point spreads to determine which team will have a decisive lead early in the game.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay during the first quarter of their game scheduled for October 18, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the winning team exceeds the specified point spread within that quarter. Only points scored in the first quarter count, regardless of the final game result. Each market features a different threshold for the point spread, ranging from narrow margins like over 2.5 points to larger gaps such as over 10.5 points, allowing participants to assess varying levels of dominance. The governing league's official scoring and game records determine resolution, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the league or ownership of its intellectual property.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as an event nears. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market allows traders to express their own independent assessments. However, discrepancies can occur due to differing information access, biases, or simply the dynamics of each market. It’s common to see this market move differently than sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges and traders react to it.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the actual first quarter spread between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the official result reported by the relevant sports authorities. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of their trade.
Several factors could influence this market. Late-breaking news regarding key player injuries for either Pittsburgh or Tampa Bay would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they impact the passing game, could also shift expectations. Even public sentiment, as reflected in news articles and social media, can influence trading activity. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before kickoff could also contribute to shifts in the price of contracts within this market.