TOTAL VOLUME:
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2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 12:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional football game between Pittsburgh and New Orleans, focusing specifically on the margin of victory. It categorizes possible results based on how many points separate the winning team from the loser. The resolution depends entirely on the final score of the game, including any overtime periods.
The event resolves based on the point differential between Pittsburgh and New Orleans in their Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026, including any overtime periods. If New Orleans wins by exactly 0 points (a tie), or by between 1 to 6 points, 7 to 14 points, or 15 or more points, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Pittsburgh wins by between 1 to 6 points, 7 to 14 points, or 15 or more points, the respective market resolves to Yes. All outcomes are determined solely by the full game result, with no additional conditions or external factors influencing the resolution.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different winning margin ranges. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a particular contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform facilitates price discovery by allowing traders to express their views and adjust their positions based on new information. This dynamic process ensures that the market prices reflect the most up-to-date expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final winning margin of the Pittsburgh versus New Orleans game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The winning margin will be sourced from official game statistics and verified against credible public sources. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct winning margin range will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for incorrect ranges will not. The precise details of payout are available on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence the NFL winning margin market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Pittsburgh or New Orleans teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the expected scoring and thus the winning margin. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced before the game could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself, driven by informed traders, can quickly alter the prices and probabilities reflected in this market.