TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 10:39 AM EST
Kalshi
The market focuses on whether specific players or team defense/special teams units score a certain number of touchdowns in an upcoming football game between Pittsburgh and New Orleans. Outcomes depend on individual player performances or defensive scores throughout the full game, including overtime.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to kickoff unless the player achieves the required touchdowns. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion. This event includes all touchdowns scored during the full game, including overtime, with passing touchdowns excluded from counts for individual passers. Team defense/special-teams selections are settled on actual touchdowns without the player participation exception applying to them.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially in the lead-up to an event. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows traders to directly assess probabilities. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and provide a useful benchmark for comparison. Discrepancies between this market and sportsbook lines can present arbitrage opportunities for informed traders, though these often disappear quickly as the market adjusts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different touchdown totals. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the likely number of touchdowns. The market depth indicates the volume of contracts available at various price points, providing insight into potential price movements.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final touchdown count from the Pittsburgh versus New Orleans game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, and any disputes will be handled according to Kalshi’s standard procedures. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual number of touchdowns scored will receive a payout of 100 cents per contract, while those holding contracts on incorrect totals will receive nothing.
Several factors could influence this market. Injury reports for key offensive players on either team – particularly quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers – would be significant. Changes in weather forecasts, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could impact scoring potential. Late-breaking news regarding coaching strategies or defensive adjustments might also shift expectations. Finally, any significant shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in betting trends or expert analysis, could also drive movement in this market.