TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 12:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks specific player performance metrics in an upcoming American football game. It focuses on whether certain players achieve predetermined receiving yard thresholds during the full match, including any overtime periods. The contracts are structured to account for player participation and potential game alterations.
All contracts in this event are designated as protected, meaning they incorporate specific participation clauses and fair price adjustments. A contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff if the player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half concludes, unless the player meets the required receiving yards threshold. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count toward participation requirements. Players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and all statistics include overtime periods.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like public bias or sharp money. Sportsbooks often set lines to attract balanced action, while this market represents what traders collectively believe will happen. Over time, the odds in this market may converge with sportsbook odds as more information becomes available and the event approaches, but initial discrepancies are common. It’s important to remember that prediction markets allow for continuous price discovery up until the event’s conclusion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yard totals. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective predictions of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic assessment of the likely outcome. This allows for a very granular view of expectations, as opposed to simple over/under bets found elsewhere. The current market reflects the aggregated beliefs of those actively trading.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage totals for the players involved are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards will be sourced from official NFL statistics and will determine which contracts pay out. Traders can continue to adjust their positions until the market closes, responding to any late-breaking news or changes in player status. The resolution will be based on the official, finalized statistics released by the NFL following the game’s completion.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or quarterbacks would be a major catalyst, as this directly affects their ability to accumulate receiving yards. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if a game is expected to be played in heavy rain or wind, could also influence the market. Unexpected changes in coaching strategy or defensive schemes could also play a role. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding player matchups or playing time could cause shifts in the market’s pricing as traders react to the new information.