TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 12:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting whether specific quarterbacks will surpass various passing yardage thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a different yardage benchmark that the player must achieve during the match.
All markets resolve based on the total passing yards accumulated by the specified quarterback in the Pittsburgh vs New Orleans Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. If the named player is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual passing yards recorded during the game. All markets are independent, each corresponding to a distinct passing yard threshold that must be met or exceeded for a 'Yes' resolution. The markets cover a range of thresholds from 150 to 350 passing yards. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own research and beliefs. While sportsbooks may initially have different odds, they often adjust closer to prediction market prices as the event approaches, especially when a significant amount of money is traded on Kalshi.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yardage ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, causing the prices to fluctuate in response to new information and changing expectations. The current market price is a real-time assessment of the collective prediction of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yardage statistics from the game between Pittsburgh and New Orleans are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official game statistics, ensuring an objective determination of the total passing yards achieved during the game. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct passing yardage range will receive a payout, while those with incorrect predictions will not.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would significantly impact trading activity. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to favor passing or running, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking reports about team strategies or defensive matchups could lead to adjustments in contract prices. Unexpected news related to player availability or coaching decisions could also cause volatility in this market.