TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 10:38 AM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether specific quarterbacks will achieve certain thresholds of passing touchdowns in an upcoming football game. The outcomes depend entirely on the players' performance during the match, making it a straightforward test of offensive productivity.
Each market resolves based on whether the named player records the specified number of passing touchdowns or more during the full game, including any overtime periods. All contracts are designated as 'protected,' meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price set before the game starts, unless the player meets or exceeds the required touchdown threshold, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the dynamic nature of trading. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on their analysis, while this market’s prices are determined by individuals buying and selling contracts based on their own beliefs. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – the prices in this market can adjust more rapidly than traditional sportsbook odds. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform traditional odds, especially closer to the event date.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the collective believes is the most likely scenario. The market depth – the number of buy and sell orders at various price points – provides insight into the level of conviction behind different outcomes. A higher volume at a particular price suggests stronger agreement among traders.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Pittsburgh versus New Orleans game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and any associated payouts on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game and the official reporting of statistics.
Several factors could significantly influence the price movement in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries – particularly the quarterbacks or top receivers for either team – would likely cause substantial shifts. Changes in weather forecasts, such as the prediction of heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected number of passing touchdowns. Significant news about coaching strategies or defensive adjustments could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis from reputable sports analysts could influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the prices in this market.