TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 10:37 AM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game, focusing on how many passing touchdowns they manage to score. The outcomes depend entirely on the players' in-game success, making it a direct measure of their offensive contributions.
The markets resolve based on whether specified quarterbacks achieve certain thresholds of passing touchdowns during the Pittsburgh vs New Orleans Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market corresponds to a particular player and a minimum number of passing touchdowns (ranging from 1 to 4). If the named player records the required number or more passing touchdowns, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule states that if a player is active for the game but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly based on the actual number of passing touchdowns they record during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for both Tyler Shough and Aaron Rodgers, ensuring consistent evaluation of each player’s performance against the specified thresholds.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market incorporates the collective beliefs of many traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. While sportsbooks may initially be more influenced by expert opinions, this market tends to become more accurate as the event approaches and more people participate, potentially offering a different perspective on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people trade, the price fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving expectations of the crowd. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price differences, creating a dynamic and informative market signal.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Pittsburgh versus New Orleans game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result. Traders will then receive payouts based on the final outcome and their positions in this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that favor passing or running, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, updates on team strategies or play-calling tendencies, as reported by reliable sources, might cause traders to adjust their positions. Unexpected news or developments related to the teams or the game itself could all contribute to volatility in this market.