TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 12:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing performance thresholds for specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game. It evaluates whether players meet or exceed designated completion benchmarks during the match. Outcomes depend purely on in-game statistics for the named athletes.
All markets resolve based on whether the named quarterback achieves the specified passing completion threshold during the Pittsburgh vs New Orleans game scheduled for Oct 25, 2026. If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the pre-game fair market price. Once a snap is taken — even if later nullified by penalty — resolution depends solely on actual completions recorded during play. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for both Tyler Shough and Aaron Rodgers at their respective thresholds (19+, 24+, 29+ for Shough; 18+, 23+, 28+ for Rodgers). Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and often incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the probability of different outcomes. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the event. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be accurate in predicting the final result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing completion totals. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that specific outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the final number of passing completions and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing completion statistics from the Pittsburgh versus New Orleans game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions, as recorded by official NFL statistics, will determine which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Kalshi once the official results are available, and payouts will be processed accordingly. The market’s resolution is based on the official game data.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected passing volume. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or defensive adjustments could shift traders’ expectations. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price changes, reflecting shifts in market sentiment as traders react to information.