TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 12:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score the most points in the final quarter of a specific NFL matchup between Pittsburgh and New Orleans. It highlights the importance of late-game performance and momentum shifts that often occur in the closing moments of a football game. The outcome depends solely on points scored during the fourth quarter, excluding any overtime periods.
The market determines the winner of the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) in the Pittsburgh vs New Orleans Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. If either Pittsburgh or New Orleans scores the most points during that quarter, the respective team's market resolves to Yes. If both teams score an equal number of points in the 4th quarter, neither team's market resolves to Yes, and instead the Tie market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the 4th quarter—excluding any overtime periods—are counted toward determining the outcome. This structure ensures that the result hinges exclusively on in-game performance in the final quarter of regulation time.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the teams’ strengths and weaknesses. If you observe a significant difference between the implied probability in this market and sportsbook odds, it might signal an opportunity for informed trading.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about which team will win the fourth quarter. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism. This means the odds can shift rapidly as the game progresses and new developments occur.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the winner of the fourth quarter of the Pittsburgh versus New Orleans game will determine the settlement of contracts in this market. The official game results, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will be used to verify the outcome and distribute payouts to contract holders. Traders should monitor the game’s progress to understand how the market is likely to settle.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries on either team would likely cause a shift in the odds. In-game performance, such as a dominant start by one team or a crucial turnover, could also lead to rapid price movements. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, might also influence trading activity. Even public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, could contribute to shifts in the market before the game concludes.