TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 12:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on the performance of Pittsburgh and New Orleans during the final quarter of their scheduled game on October 25, 2026. Each market evaluates different point differentials to determine the outcome based on who wins and by how much in that specific quarter.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Pittsburgh vs New Orleans Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold for the winning margin: Pittsburgh must win by more than 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points, or New Orleans must win by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points during that quarter. Only points scored in the 4th quarter count, and overtime points are excluded from all calculations. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the actual point differential exceeds the specified threshold for the respective team’s victory in that quarter.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and perspectives that traditional sportsbooks might miss. While sportsbook odds are set by professional oddsmakers, this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs about the likely outcome. It’s common to see initial discrepancies between the two, but as the event approaches, the prices in this market often converge with those offered by sportsbooks, particularly as more information becomes available and trading volume increases. However, differences can persist due to varying levels of market efficiency and participant expertise.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the actual point spread will fall on that side at the end of the game. As more traders participate and express their views, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time assessment of the likely outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are influenced by news, injuries, and overall sentiment surrounding the teams involved, leading to fluctuations in contract values as the event nears.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Pittsburgh versus New Orleans game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as determined by the NFL, and the contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls on the buy or sell side of the contracts purchased. Traders will be able to see the final result and their payout amounts on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Pittsburgh or New Orleans teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected news about team strategy or coaching decisions might also move the market. Finally, significant shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could also contribute to price changes in this market as traders adjust their positions.