TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:34 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Pittsburgh or New Orleans exclusively during the second quarter of their scheduled game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team within that quarter alone.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Pittsburgh and New Orleans at the end of the second quarter of play in their game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold that the winning team must exceed for the outcome to resolve as 'Yes'. If Pittsburgh wins the second quarter, markets requiring Pittsburgh to win by more than a specified number of points will resolve to 'Yes' if the margin meets or exceeds that threshold. Conversely, if New Orleans wins the second quarter, markets requiring New Orleans to win by more than a specified number of points will resolve to 'Yes' if their margin meets or exceeds that threshold. No points scored in any other quarter contribute to these resolutions. If neither team meets the required margin in their respective markets, or if the game is canceled or rescheduled beyond the original date without a make-up occurring on or before that date, all markets resolve as 'No'.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts, offering potential opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic process creates a market-driven assessment of the likelihood of various outcomes for the NFL 2nd quarter spread.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual second quarter spread of the Pittsburgh versus New Orleans game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by relevant sports data providers. The final price of contracts in this market will reflect the actual spread, determining payouts for those who correctly predicted the outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result as this will determine the settlement of all contracts.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Pittsburgh or New Orleans teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to one team's playing style, could also move the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale, as well as significant betting activity in traditional sportsbooks, could all contribute to shifts in price as traders adjust their predictions.