TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 3:57 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether one team will secure a decisive lead in the final quarter of a college football game. Outcomes depend entirely on scoring dynamics during the last 15 minutes of regulation time, ignoring any overtime periods.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the 4th quarter of regulation play in the Pittsburgh vs Miami (FL) college football game scheduled for October 24, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by either team to resolve as 'Yes'. If Miami wins by more than the specified margin in the final quarter, the relevant Miami markets resolve affirmatively. Conversely, if Pittsburgh achieves the required margin, the corresponding Pittsburgh markets resolve affirmatively. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve based on the official result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve to a fair price, reflecting equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the eventual game outcome.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of a decentralized market. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available or as the event draws closer.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions on the 4th quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their contracts are correctly valued at the time of resolution. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, creating a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 4th quarter spread for the Pittsburgh versus Miami (FL) game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league and verified by Kalshi. The final spread will determine which contracts pay out and at what value, based on the contract’s price at the time of resolution. Traders who accurately predicted the spread will profit from their positions.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 24, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in weather conditions, or significant shifts in team strategy could all impact market sentiment. Unexpected announcements about starting quarterbacks or defensive schemes would likely cause movement. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could also signal a change in expectations and drive price fluctuations in this market.