TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 11:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the outcome of an NHL hockey game between Pittsburgh and Chicago, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It determines whether the winning team secures a decisive lead according to specific goal differentials. The resolution hinges on the official game result, with provisions for scheduling changes.
The event consists of four markets, each evaluating different goal-differential thresholds for either Pittsburgh or Chicago to win by. If Chicago wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes; if they win by more than 1.5 goals, the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Pittsburgh wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes, and if they win by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All markets share a common secondary rule: if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment under unforeseen circumstances.
Typically, prediction market odds tend to reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which may be influenced by factors like public perception or early betting action. Sportsbooks often adjust their lines based on betting volume, but this market allows for continuous price discovery driven by informed traders. While sportsbooks may offer promotional odds or have limitations on betting limits, this market provides a transparent and open platform for expressing beliefs about the game's outcome. It's common to see this market converge with sportsbook odds as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders essentially bet on their prediction of the final point spread, and the market price adjusts dynamically based on their collective actions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that shifts in sentiment, new information, or even large trades can quickly impact the odds, offering opportunities for informed traders to capitalize on perceived mispricings.
This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the Pittsburgh versus Chicago game, as officially recorded by sports data providers, will determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official result, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on their positions in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Pittsburgh or Chicago teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the game, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed individuals or groups could also drive price fluctuations in this market as they express their views on the likely outcome.