TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 9:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Pittsburgh and Birmingham Legion FC, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different winning margins in a USL Championship soccer match between Pittsburgh and Birmingham Legion FC scheduled for October 24, 2026. All markets resolve based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty kicks are disregarded. Four distinct outcome scenarios are considered: Pittsburgh winning by more than 2.5 goals, Pittsburgh winning by more than 1.5 goals, Birmingham winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Birmingham winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each market independently assesses its specific threshold, with resolution contingent on whether the actual goal differential meets or exceeds the stated requirement. The governing body is the USL Championship, though Kalshi clarifies it holds no official affiliation with the league. All trademarks and branding remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from sportsbook odds, which are often set by analysts. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public perception or promotional offers, while this market relies on individuals directly expressing their beliefs through trading. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling on both venues. However, it's important to remember that prediction market odds are dynamic and change as new information becomes available and more people participate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the spread. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time. The current spread reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Pittsburgh versus Birmingham Legion FC match, specifically the goal difference, will determine the winning contracts. The official result as reported by the USL Championship will be used to settle this market. Traders who hold contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Pittsburgh or Birmingham Legion FC would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a recent match, could also shift expectations. Weather conditions on game day, particularly if they are expected to be unfavorable, might also impact trading activity. Finally, any significant public announcements or expert analysis regarding the teams' chances could influence the market.