TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 11:39 PM EST
Kalshi
Contracts here reward Jayden Daniels' rushing yardage in escalating tiers, where each subsequent block of ten yards increases the payout significantly. The structure creates a non-linear, accelerating return pattern as yardage accumulates.
If Each Yes contract pays per rushing yards by Jayden Daniels in the Philadelphia vs Washington Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. Each 10 rushing yards increase the payout by the following schedule: 0–9 yards, $0.0000; 10–19, $0.0001; 20–29, $0.0010; 30–39, $0.0033; 40–49, $0.0080; 50–59, $0.0156; 60–69, $0.0270; 70–79, $0.0428; 80–89, $0.0640; 90–99, $0.0911; 100–109, $0.1250; 110–119, $0.1663; 120–129, $0.2160; 130–139, $0.2746; 140–149, $0.3430; 150–159, $0.4218; 160–169, $0.5120; 170–179, $0.6141; 180–189, $0.7290; 190–199, $0.8573; and 200 or more, $1.0000. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Yes pays out at most $1.00. Then the market resolves to Yes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the influence of public opinion and information aggregation. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk assessment, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. It’s common to see this market odds move closer to the final outcome as more information becomes available, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sports betting odds. Polls and analysts often underestimate the impact of unforeseen events, something this market can capture more dynamically.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yardage outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. The more contracts purchased for a specific outcome, the higher its price, indicating greater market confidence in that scenario. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and evolving sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yardage totals from the Philadelphia versus Washington game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yardage totals, as reported by the official NFL statistics, will determine which contracts pay out and at what value. The resolution process is independent and relies on publicly available data to ensure a fair and transparent outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key players on either team, particularly running backs and offensive linemen, would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or snow, could affect the running game strategy. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in game plans could also influence the market. Finally, any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to traders adjusting their positions, causing price fluctuations in this market until resolution.