TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 11:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performance in an upcoming football game, focusing on whether specified athletes or units achieve certain fantasy point thresholds. The outcomes depend on detailed statistical contributions across various categories such as passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive plays.
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the designated player or team accumulates more than the specified fantasy point threshold during the full game, including overtime. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper's default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for yards gained, touchdowns, interceptions, field goals, sacks, and other key plays. Players who do not participate or lack a recorded value are considered to have scored zero points. The official point totals from Sleeper at the time of game expiration are used for resolution, with no adjustments for post-expiration corrections. The scoring breakdown includes passing and rushing yards at set rates, touchdowns, interceptions, and two-point conversions for offensive players, while defensive and special teams players earn points for tackles, turnovers, and scoring plays. Kicking contributions are also factored in, with field goals and extra points awarded based on distance and accuracy. The markets are independent of any official league affiliations, relying solely on the specified scoring metrics.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade and express their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new data than sportsbooks, though both attempt to accurately forecast the outcome of the game. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people trade, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief of the crowd. The closer we get to the event, the more the prices will likely converge, with the most probable outcome having the highest price. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy point totals for players in the Philadelphia vs Washington game will be used to determine whether the market settles above or below the contracted levels. Official fantasy point scoring rules from a major fantasy sports provider will be used to calculate the totals. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Kalshi once the outcome is officially confirmed and validated.
Several factors could influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Philadelphia or Washington teams would likely have a significant impact, as this directly affects projected fantasy point totals. Changes in player matchups, weather forecasts, or even coaching decisions could also shift the market. Unexpected news about player health or performance, even outside of game-related events, can also cause movement. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact on fantasy point production is crucial for informed trading in this market.