TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 11:27 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on the final quarter performance of an upcoming professional football game, allowing participants to speculate on the margin of victory for either team specifically within the last quarter of play. Outcomes are determined solely by points scored during that designated period, ignoring any earlier game events or overtime scenarios.
All markets resolve based exclusively on the point differential achieved by either team during the 4th quarter of the designated Philadelphia vs Washington Pro Football game, with overtime points excluded from consideration. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold: if Washington wins by more than 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, or 3.5 points, or if Philadelphia wins by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points during that quarter, the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Only points scored in the 4th quarter count toward these outcomes, ensuring that earlier game performance or overtime periods do not affect resolution.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the insights of many individual traders. However, initial sportsbook lines can sometimes influence early trading in this market. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly before significant news or events impact perceptions of the likely outcome, and these differences can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 4th quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that specific spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders submit bids and asks, and the market clears at the best available prices, constantly updating the implied probability. The more traders believe a particular spread is likely, the higher the contract price will climb, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official 4th quarter spread of the Philadelphia versus Washington game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official game statistics, and the market will settle to 100 for the winning spread and 0 for the losing spread. Traders holding contracts on the winning spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing spread will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Philadelphia or Washington would likely cause a shift in the spread. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is predicted, could also influence trading activity. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might prompt traders to reassess their predictions. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could also move the market, reflecting new information or a change in overall sentiment.