TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 9:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an MLS soccer match between Philadelphia and Salt Lake, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It considers different thresholds for goal differentials to determine the result. The resolution depends solely on the final score after regular time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks.
The event evaluates various goal-differential scenarios for the Philadelphia vs Salt Lake MLS match scheduled for October 10, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are possible, each defined by specific margins of victory for either team. If Philadelphia wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals (regardless of whether it exceeds 2.5), that outcome resolves positively. Similarly, if Salt Lake wins by more than 1.5 goals, or by more than 2.5 goals, that also resolves positively. The resolution occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty shootouts. All markets are independent assessments and Kalshi clarifies it holds no official affiliation with the MLS or its governing bodies.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect information beyond what is captured in traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but this market incorporates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially factoring in real-time news, injuries, or other developments that haven’t fully impacted sportsbook odds. While sportsbooks may adjust their lines as new information emerges, prediction markets can react more quickly to changing sentiment. It’s common to see differences, as each represents a different form of forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the latest information and sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the event, the more the prices will likely converge towards the true probability, though fluctuations are expected based on new information and trading activity.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Philadelphia vs Salt Lake game. The platform will then verify the outcome against these sources to determine which contracts settle at $100 and which settle at $0. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on incorrect spreads will lose their investment. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Philadelphia or Salt Lake would likely cause price adjustments. Changes in team performance, coaching decisions, or even weather forecasts could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or player availability would also be catalysts. Major shifts in public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analyses, could also impact the market, as traders react to the evolving narrative surrounding the game. Monitoring these factors is crucial for understanding potential market movements.