TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 10:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will have the highest score in the final quarter of a specific basketball game between Philadelphia and New York. It tracks performance in a single quarter rather than the overall game outcome, adding a layer of short-term strategy for participants. The resolution depends solely on the points scored during regulation time of the fourth quarter.
The market resolves based on which team scores the most points during the fourth quarter of the designated Philadelphia vs New York professional basketball game, excluding any overtime periods. If Philadelphia scores more points in the fourth quarter than New York, the 'Philadelphia' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if New York scores more points in that quarter, the 'New York' market resolves to Yes. Should both teams finish the fourth quarter with equal scores, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. For postponements occurring within 48 hours of the original start time, the market remains active and resolves according to the actual fourth-quarter result once play commences. If the game is canceled or fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe one team is more likely to win, the odds on Kalshi will shift accordingly, potentially diverging from sportsbook lines. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform traditional forecasts, especially when there is a lot of information available and active trading.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market clears at the best available prices. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds are constantly adjusting based on new information and changing sentiment, creating a real-time forecast of the event’s outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the 4th quarter of the Philadelphia vs New York game will determine the winning contract. Traders will be able to claim their winnings once the result is officially announced and validated. The platform will then distribute payouts based on the final outcome and the prices at which contracts were traded.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Philadelphia or New York team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team strategy, coaching decisions, or even weather conditions could also move the market. Public sentiment, as reflected in polls and expert analysis, can also play a role, although the market isn’t necessarily tied to those opinions. Unexpected developments leading up to the game could all contribute to price fluctuations.