TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions by specific players in an upcoming NFL game between Philadelphia and Jacksonville. Participants can bet on how many passes each player will catch, with payouts scaling based on actual performance. The structure allows for varied outcomes depending on each player's involvement in the game.
This event comprises four separate scalar markets, each focusing on the number of receptions recorded by a different player—Brian Thomas Jr., Bhayshul Tuten, Parker Washington, and Dontayvion Wicks—during the Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. For each market, Yes contracts pay $0.05 per reception, up to a maximum of $1.00, while No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are capped at 20 receptions per player. The Yes payout is constrained between $0.00 and $1.00, and all payouts are proportional to the holder's position size. For instance, if a player records eight receptions, the Yes payout would be $0.40 and the No payout $0.60; eleven receptions would result in a Yes payout of $0.55 and a No payout of $0.45, while zero receptions would yield a Yes payout of $0.00 and a No payout of $1.00. Each market resolves independently based on the actual reception counts for the respective player.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a ‘vig’ or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders, tends to reflect a more pure assessment of probabilities, though discrepancies can and do occur. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges or as traders react to news and analysis regarding player matchups and potential game scripts. Examining both can provide a well-rounded view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different reception totals for players. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders about the likelihood of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of player performance expectations. The market's depth and volume indicate the level of confidence in those predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, once the official statistics for the Philadelphia versus Jacksonville game are finalized and verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by the officially recorded number of receptions made by each player during the game. The platform will confirm the results based on these official sources, ensuring an accurate and transparent resolution process. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Injury reports are crucial, as the status of key players directly affects their potential for receptions. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor a passing or running game, can also shift expectations. Unexpected news regarding player roles or offensive strategies could also lead to price movements. Finally, any late-breaking analysis from reputable sports analysts or significant betting activity could influence trader sentiment and drive changes in the market.