TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:12 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of passing completions achieved by specific quarterbacks in a professional football game between Philadelphia and Jacksonville. The outcome depends on whether designated players meet or exceed their respective completion thresholds during the match.
All markets resolve based on the total passing completions recorded by the named quarterback—Trevor Lawrence or Jalen Hurts—during the Philadelphia vs Jacksonville Professional Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold (15+, 20+, or 25+ for Lawrence; 14+, 19+, or 24+ for Hurts), and resolves to 'Yes' if the player meets or exceeds their threshold. If a quarterback is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a snap is taken—regardless of whether it is nullified by a penalty—the market settles based on the actual completions recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for this event.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' perspective, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial line setting. Sportsbooks often set lines to balance betting action, while this market relies on individuals directly expressing their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts. Analyzing these differences can provide valuable insights into where the market and sportsbooks diverge in their assessments of the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect evolving expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more a particular outcome is believed to be likely, the higher its contract price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive market that incorporates new information quickly.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions achieved by both quarterbacks in the Philadelphia versus Jacksonville game will be the determining factor. Official game statistics, as reported by the NFL, will be used to verify the outcome and settle the market. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding the health of key players, particularly the quarterbacks for either team, would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially conditions that might favor a passing or running game, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected shifts in public perception, driven by expert analysis or social media trends, could also play a role. Finally, any late-breaking news about coaching strategies or game plans could lead to adjustments in the market's pricing.