TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 10:11 AM EST
Kalshi
This market asks which player will score the first touchdown in the Philadelphia vs Jacksonville professional football game. Currently, Kalshi gives Bhayshul Tuten a 13.0% probability of scoring first, closely followed by Parker Washington at 13.0%. The market will resolve based on whether Ameer Abdullah scores the first touchdown in the Philadelphia vs Jacksonville game, as determined by the official game results. Keep an eye on the kickoff of the Philadelphia vs Jacksonville game on October 11, 2026, as that marks the beginning of the scoring window and the ultimate resolution of this market.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player, defensive unit, or 'No Touchdown' condition achieves the first touchdown in the game. If a listed player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the pre-game fair market price. Once a player takes at least one snap—including plays nullified by penalty—the market outcome depends solely on whether that individual scores the first touchdown. If no touchdowns occur during the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves as the winner, and all other player-specific markets automatically resolve as losses. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent evaluation regardless of individual player participation or game outcome.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, particularly in the lead-up to an event. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own analysis, but this market allows for continuous adjustment as new information emerges and more people weigh in. While sportsbooks may adjust their lines based on betting action, Kalshi reflects a broader range of perspectives. It's common to see differences in probabilities, as this market isn't limited by a sportsbook's need to balance action on both sides of a bet.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract directly reflects the market's assessment of that player's chances. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, driven entirely by trader activity.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, following the completion of the Philadelphia versus Jacksonville game. The outcome will be determined by identifying the player who scores the first touchdown, as verified against credible public reporting from official sports sources. The resolution will reflect the official game statistics and scoring plays. Any potential disputes will be evaluated based on the official game records and widely accepted definitions of a touchdown within the sport. The market will settle to 100 for the correct player and 0 for all others.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries to key offensive players on either team would be a major catalyst, shifting probabilities away from affected players. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor a run-heavy or pass-heavy offense, could also influence the market. Late-breaking news about player matchups or strategic adjustments announced by the coaching staffs could also cause shifts. Finally, significant betting activity – a large influx of volume on a particular player – could move the market even without any external news.