TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 3:31 PM EST
Kalshi
In the same Philadelphia versus Boston NHL game, participants speculate on whether Boston will win by a margin exceeding 2.5 goals or by any margin exceeding 1.5 goals, and similarly whether Philadelphia will win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. The result hinges solely on the goal differential once the match concludes, counting only regulation and overtime goals.
Four spread markets evaluate Boston winning by over 2.5 goals, Boston winning by over 1.5 goals, Philadelphia winning by over 1.5 goals, and Philadelphia winning by over 2.5 goals. Secondary rules state that if the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its scheduled start time, markets stay open and resolve using the official final result. If the match is cancelled or fails to start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. Only regulation and overtime goals count toward the winning margin; shootout results are not considered.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect information and insights different from those captured in traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when there’s strong public sentiment or inside information not yet reflected in sportsbook lines. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster than sportsbooks in response to breaking news or shifts in perceived probability. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect changing beliefs. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the event, the more the prices will likely converge towards the true probability of each outcome, as traders refine their predictions based on new information and analysis. The market’s efficiency depends on the number of participants and the information they possess.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results of the Philadelphia versus Boston matchup as determined by the NBA. This means that the final score and any relevant game statistics will be used to determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders who correctly predicted the result will receive a payout based on the final contract price at resolution. The process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Player injuries to key players on either team would be a major catalyst, as would any changes in coaching strategies or team dynamics. Unexpected performance shifts during regular season games, or significant news regarding player health or team morale, could also influence trading activity. Major upsets in other games impacting playoff seeding could also shift perceptions. Any news related to potential rule changes or officiating controversies could also impact the market, as traders adjust their expectations based on these developments.