TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score the most points in the final quarter of a specific NFL matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Jacksonville Jaguars. It highlights the importance of late-game performance and momentum shifts that often occur in the closing moments of a football game.
The market determines the winner of the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) in the Pro Football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Jacksonville Jaguars, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026. If either team scores the most points during that quarter, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If both teams score an equal number of points in the 4th quarter, all team markets resolve to No, and the Tie market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) are considered for resolution. The outcome is strictly based on in-game performance during the specified period, with no consideration for overtime scoring or overall game results.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price of that outcome will rise, potentially offering better value than available elsewhere. It's important to compare and contrast to identify potential discrepancies and informed betting opportunities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing each team winning the fourth quarter. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a particular team, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading on the exchange. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for exposure to each outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which team is winning the game at the conclusion of the fourth quarter. The result will be based on the official game statistics as reported by the league, and the outcome will be verified against credible public sources. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Eagles or the Jaguars would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first three quarters, and any shifts in public sentiment or expert analysis, could all contribute to price fluctuations as traders adjust their predictions leading up to the fourth quarter.