TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 12:41 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the total points scored by both the Philadelphia Eagles and the Jacksonville Jaguars specifically during the third quarter of their upcoming game. Each market has a different threshold for the combined points that need to be exceeded for the outcome to be considered a success.
The markets resolve based on whether the combined points scored by both teams during the third quarter of the specified game exceed various thresholds. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging from 3.5 to 24.5 points. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward these markets, regardless of the final game outcome or points scored in other quarters. The markets are independent, with each one resolving to 'Yes' if the actual third-quarter total surpasses its specific threshold, and 'No' otherwise. All markets are subject to the condition that the game must be played as scheduled; if the game is postponed or canceled, the markets will resolve based on official league announcements or Kalshi's resolution guidelines.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders, aims to reflect the true probability of an event occurring. While sportsbook odds may initially differ, they often converge closer to prediction market prices as the event approaches, as bettors and traders alike refine their assessments. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially early on, due to differing information and biases.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to balance supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are influenced by various factors, including news, expert analysis, and overall market sentiment surrounding the Eagles and Jaguars. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total points scored in the 3rd quarter of the Eagles-Jaguars game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official scoring data from the game will be used to determine the winning outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the 3rd quarter total will receive a payout based on the final price of their contracts at the time of resolution. It’s important to monitor the game closely as it progresses, as any changes in scoring will directly impact the market’s outcome.
Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries to either the Eagles or Jaguars would likely cause shifts in the market price. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, particularly if they impact the passing or running game, could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first and second quarters, and any adjustments to team strategies, could lead to substantial price fluctuations. Public perception and analysis from sports commentators could also play a role in shaping expectations and driving trading activity.